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Communal analysis of kerala election results

The desperate wait for a nationalist malayalee again proved to be useless, as the BJP failed to open the account in kerala this time too for whatsoever reasons. The kerala politics has no place for “communal”BJP, but has enough space for “secular muslim and christian parties”. The fact is that kerala’s communal politics is the worst kind of minority centric politics in the country. The communal politics deserve a communal analysis and I have done such an attempt in this post.

Disclaimer

  • This analysis do not claim to be 100% accurate.

  • Criticisms welcome, point out any error in calculations.

  • I am Not communalising the results, but explaining how communalism helped the results.

  • I know every single person in kerala knows these facts clearly, and will not dispute these, rather they will argue what is wrong with this politics !!

  • When UDF forms ministry, wait for more hilarious analysis in my next post

District wise Communal results

constituency

Total seats

Xtian (X)

Muslim(M)

UDF (mino/total seats won)

LDF(mino/total seats won )

Total mino

(M+X)

Malapuram

16

0

14

13/14

1/2

14

Kozhikode

13

0

3

3/3

3/10

3

kottayam

9

5

0

5/7

0/2

5

Ernakulam

14

8

2

8/11

2/3

10

idukki

5

3

0

2/2

1/3

3

Thrissur

13

3

1

2/6

1/7

4

alapuzha

9

2

1

0/2

3/7

3

palakad

12

0

4

3/5

1/7

4

Kasagod

5

0

2

2/2

0/3

2

kannur

11

3

2

4/5

1/6

5

waynad

3

0

0

0/3

0/0

0

Trivandrum

14

1

2

2/8

1/6

3

Pathanamthitta

5

2

0

0/2

2/3

2

Kollam

11

2

1

1/2

1/9

3

Total

140

29

32

45/72

16/68

61

Inferences

  • In a state with 55 percent hindus , UDF comes to power with more than 60 percent MLAs (45/72) who belong to minority community. There are about 60 members from the minority community in the newly elected house of 140 ; this figure is obvious because there were 46 reserved constituencies where the candidates of both LDF and UdF belonged to minority community.(read here)

  • In these 140 seats UDF put about 65 minority candidates and out of these, 45 won and from among the 75 Hindu candidates only 27 won. That means Udf winnabilty is 70 percent when they put minorities as candidates and only 30 percent when they put Hindus as candidates.This clearly shows the CONGRESS AND THEIR ALLIES ARE SO MUCH DEPENDENT ON MINORITIES and their votes. Without their support they can not ever win.

  • Malapuram, Idukki, Kottayam, Ernakulam (central kerala), there are 40 seats out of which 32 is represented by Minority MLAs. Out of these 32 minority seats, 28 went to udf. (Note that UDF put candidates as 32 minorities and 8 Hindus in MIKE constituencies, and the result is 28 minorities and 6 hindus won.read here).

  • Compared to UDF, ldf has more number of Hindus contesting, and their winnability is larger when they put Hindu candidates.This infer that Hindus prefer LDF to UDF.

  • Also here is the link to know why BJP lost in three places where it had high hopes.(read here)

Factors

MIKE phenomenon

The MIKE districts which I have specially mentioned in the inferences, has many things to say about how the minority vote bank influenze the Indian politics. These MIKE areas is one of the major deciding factor in the election outcome.The UDF in particular which is close to church is able to bag many seats from this area (kottayam and Ernakulam) . Similar is the case with Malapuram district.The church and Muslim politics thrives here. The recent municipality election in ernakulam was an eye opener to hindus. The udf had won the elections and all the talks about the mayor post was revolving around a Congress man with a hindu name. But at last church interfered and the mayor became a christian. So attempts are made by the minorities to monopolize politics as well as in administration level. The other districts do not seem to support this kind of politics because they are more Hindu, except kasargod and some parts of kozhikode we can see similar politics being played.

THE BJP Paradox

BJP is very weak in kerala, but RSS is not.There seems that BJP is not able to break the COMMIE-CON nexus which prevents them from opening an account. BJP need to concentrate on strong holds and start ground work for the next elections from today onwards. If not they will not be able to open the account for ever as the Hindu population is decreasing and shortly it will be less than 50 percent.

The “Rahul Gandhi” factor

Rahul and his mother Sonia had done extensive campaign in the state and it is interesting that it complicated the UDF otherwise a handsdown victory. Not to forget the VS dig at “amul baby” and “vote for LDF” gaffes by sonia gandhi.Many such factors helped LDF,otherwise they would have suffered very heavily.

Comment your thoughts on Kerala communal scenerio..!

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37 Comments on “Communal analysis of kerala election results”

  1. […] The desperate wait for a nationalist malayalee again proved to be useless, as the BJP failed to open the account in kerala this time too for whatsoever reasons. The kerala politics has no place for "communal"BJP, but has enough space for "secular muslim and christian parties". The fact is that kerala's communal politics is the worst kind of minority centric politics in the country. The communal politics deserve a communal analysis and I have done … Read More […]

  2. meena das narayan says:

    gud one..explains very well

  3. Prashanth K.P. says:

    That is some realistic analysis you have brought out here. While acknowledging the sad reality that BJP could not open its account in the State, where it was almost assured 2 if not more, some serious introspection is necessitated on an almost urgent basis. The fragmented Hindu community should introspect and revisit its rapidly diminishing social and political presence. They should focus their thoughts on the reality surrounding them with relation to the astounding flourish Muslims and Christians are enjoying in the State. The Hindus fail to realize that they are almost on the verge of being degraded to a minority status within 20 years if not earlier. The Hindus fail to understand that wealth, once possessed by them, is now at the hands of Muslims and Christians. The Hindus fail to recognize that fact that what was once their House and Property are now owned by Muslims and Christians. The Hindus fail to understand that they have access to jobs at a percentage alarmingly less than Muslims and Christians. The Hindus fail to recognize the fact that the Christians and Muslims are accorded all privileges under the so called ‘minority’ consideration whereas they are discriminated at every quarters. The alarming list is endless. The frustrations are plenty. The despair is almost unbearable. But sadly, only a minute percentage of nationalist Hindus like us seem to realize that, seem to feel that, seem to understand that and seem to endure that. The vast majority of Hindus down there are blinded by their pseudo political affiliations more than their cultural affinity. The bulging prosperity of Christians and Muslims fail to catch their attention even when wailing about their condition of having little or nothing.

    RSS presence is very much there but not enough to supersede the humongous cultural erosion that is happening rapidly in the Hindu community. Though the BJP/RSS combine has gained ground, the awareness that needs to revive within the community must undergo a transition where the Hindus begin to understand that their political affiliations should become secondary to their faith. Until that awareness seeps into the adrenalin of the Hindus in general and in Kerala particularly, the sad state of affairs will continue to harm, hurt and eventually hurl them to a corner from where a come back would become distant and impossible.

    Kudos to your wonderful ground work post election highlighting the sad plight of us Hindus. I only hope there are plenty more dedicated cadres like you for a salvation.

    Thank you and Jai Hind.

    • Biju says:

      Hi prashanth

      you have not mentioned that minorities have contributed to Kerala in their own way. Right from the printing press arrival to kerala’s much vaunted literacy rates. The first kerala college was a seminary converted to a college.where great men like KPS Menon studied. Why did not the namboodiris , the biggest landowners in the country, start a school or college , is it because they were afraid of educating the so-called low caste population? And who are these so-called minorities, majority of them are those who belonged to the Hindu community . I have heard upper class Hindus referring to Christians as ” converts” exposing their own caste mentality. It is precisely this caste mentality that needs to change. Calling them “milk powder converts” as well as “minority mafia” shows a unsure and prejudiced mentality. Many “christian and muslim” families became rich through hardwork and enterprise working as nurses and other jobs beginning from early 70’s. Today so-called Hindu also go abroad and do the same thing. Nothing wrong with it. And we have reservations too, and one particular community from the mainstream community has derived maximum advantage from it according to newspaper reports. at the end of the day we should understand we are not xtians, Muslims or hindus, just irrelevant non-entities of Brahman, and no one among us has any choice because we do not exist, its an illusion, because only Brahman exists. The rest is Maya. Practically speaking we can improve only through good governance , dharma, and doing our duty wherever we are, because that is the only true choice we have, hatred has no place in it

      • nationalizer says:

        You seems like a great philosopher, this place is not for your armchair philosophy dude !!!! at the end of the day we should understand we are not xtians, Muslims or hindus,but it is a fact that 60 percent muslims and christians of the govt is going to rule 55 percent hindus !!! kudos…!!

      • R.Muralidharan says:

        In the Cochin corporation elections, Mr.Venugopalan was selected as Mayor, then the Bishop palace interdfered in the Mayors election and they pressurised the congress president to appoint a Christian as Cochin Mayor. This is the unnecessary domination by Christian church in a secular country

  4. Karma says:

    The sad thing is that even the malayalee LDF and UDF Hindu supporters know this fact. But when these facts are being discussed, they brand us communal. Fighting for something they don’t know about. I’m still hopeful. Let us not lose the hope. This time we came pretty close. V Muraleedharan is doing a good job. Our presence is being felt. Let us not get disheartened. Lets pledge one thing before that. When our govt. comes in 2014 at the centre, show the secular goons how to run a corruption free government. Good governance is the key to people’s mind. Plz keep up the good work. Jai Hind.

    • trueindian says:

      This is so funny …”When our govt comes in 2014 at the centre”….hahaha…you were just kidding right ? if not..wish you good luck !! you will need lots of it …

      • Dileep says:

        No. He wasn’t kidding.
        It is quite a natural observation that there is pretty much chance for NDA to come to power next time. Well, if we want, we can still find the statement as funny. “In 2014”? Are you kidding? Don’t you think there is chance for this government (that is tainted with corruption of the worst kind) may crumble down even before 2014?

  5. Vijay says:

    The percentage of total minority MLAs is still less than their population. Just that one party got more of them than the other. Just like different castes favor different parties, different minorities too may have a general preference. A similar analysis can be done on, say dalits, caste-wise and show which caste has favored which party etc. So, what is the issue here?

    • nationalizer says:

      Interesting !!
      1.60/140 = 43 prcent which is close to thier percentage !
      2.Gujarat has 95 percent Hindus, and according to this logic, muslims deserve only 5 percent of total seats why people make a halla bol that there are less muslim mo and mla’s there.
      3.Caste based politics is already ruining the nation, but now the religion based politics divides the nation.eg kashmir, arunachal ! Adding fuel to fire ?

  6. b k chowla says:

    It is an eye opener

  7. Prashant says:

    Excellent work Ashok!

    You have analyzed the political game which media does its best to hide.

    Vigilant citizens like you spread information and awareness. Your great blog is proof of commitment to truth.

  8. popcandy2020 says:

    Nice Article with Data & In-depth analysis, Good Luck.

  9. trueindian says:

    Stop whining ppl…get back to work..lets build the country…stop fueling the religious extremism !!! We are all one nation…be it hindu or muslim or christian…if minorities are consolidating it is only bcoz they are scared of right wing extremists and they have memories of what RSS and BJP have done to them for political gains…nobody is robbing the hindus of anything here…let us all live harmoniously !!! Jai India !!!!!

    • Prashanth B,N says:

      If minorities have a right to consolidate then so do the majority.Crap logic by a crappy idiot! Stop calling yourself a true Indian. MuslimIndian more like it or ChristianIndian!LOL!

    • nationalizer says:

      “if minorities are consolidating it is only bcoz they are scared of right wing extremists ”

      Hindus are living in pleasure, all feel safe in this country, is that what you mean ? Just stop dude !!!

      “nobody is robbing the hindus of anything here”

      ROFL, how do you think government give subsidies to mecca piligrims? with black money of sonia gandhi or with tax that 80 percent hindus pay ?

      and also you mean to say when minority becomes majority , the minority hindus in the area has no rights ??

    • ashish.neo@gmail.com says:

      Why don’t you write the same thing to Pro-muslim groups of bangladesh, pakistan and indonesia where minority hindus has no rights. Don’t they have the right to live harmoniously there??

  10. rajkumar says:

    when minorities(muslims+christians) become more than 30% ,no right wing party can come to power….from then on almost impossible to come back…

  11. Renjith Nair says:

    Excellent analysis! Pathetic state of affair of the so called 100% literate state.

  12. Hemant says:

    Good Analysis for Nothing..

    Reason is if all Kerala people think of their development than……they will get advantages of following things…try to spread this….

    Let them bring one party to full majority
    Force the party to develop kerala state
    Start growing daily needs VEGETABLES & stop demepnding on other states
    Welcome all Industialists to start their buiness in so called God OWN state

    Benefits all KERALA generation will stop going to GULF for daily Bread & Butter.

    • Biju says:

      Hi prashanth

      you have not mentioned that minorities have contributed to Kerala in their own way. Right from the printing press arrival to kerala’s much vaunted literacy rates. The first kerala college was a seminary converted to a college.where great men like KPS Menon studied. Why did not the namboodiris , the biggest landowners in the country, start a school or college , is it because they were afraid of educating the so-called low caste population? And who are these so-called minorities, majority of them are those who belonged to the Hindu community . I have heard upper class Hindus referring to Christians as ” converts” exposing their own caste mentality. It is precisely this caste mentality that needs to change. Calling them “milk powder converts” as well as “minority mafia” shows a unsure and prejudiced mentality. Many “christian and muslim” families became rich through hardwork and enterprise working as nurses and other jobs beginning from early 70′s. Today so-called Hindu also go abroad and do the same thing. Nothing wrong with it. And we have reservations too, and one particular community from the mainstream community has derived maximum advantage from it according to newspaper reports. at the end of the day we should understand we are not xtians, Muslims or hindus, just irrelevant non-entities of Brahman, and no one among us has any choice because we do not exist, its an illusion, because only Brahman exists. The rest is Maya. Practically speaking we can improve only through good governance , dharma, and doing our duty wherever we are, because that is the only true choice we have, hatred has no place in it.

  13. Bijoy says:

    Absolutely right analysis. I feel the factor behind good show of LDF is the “secular” UDF.

  14. Jay says:

    Hi, The data furnished here have mistakes, but overall correct.

  15. Malayali says:

    My Dear GSB,

    You do not know Malayalees. We are one whether we are hindu,christain or muslim and except 6% brahminist agents in kerala, no malaylee will support people like you who are trying to inject venom amoung us and divide us.

  16. Kerala Lover says:

    Great Article ,supported with research – Keep it Up

  17. rajkumar@rediffmail.com says:

    in a 224 assembly of karnatakain 2008 assemply polls,muslim mlas r less than 10..and none in ruling govt of bjp..and muslims constitute more than 14% of karnataka… by their proportion in population they should have got 30 mlas in karantaka assembly. seein kerala,westbengal history, how muslims share in total mlas sees BIG SPURT (from around 1/4 mlas as per their share in population to more than 3/4 mlas.)once they reach 20+% share of population.. westbengal,assam,kerala,northeast r the real indicators of how increasing %share of minorities leads to increased hindus suffersing…. change in religion means nation division..

  18. Anonymous says:

    BJP fails because in Kerala it is seen just as a branch of Nair Service Society

  19. janapalan says:

    read more india parliamentary lok sabha general elections 2014 news http://www.indiaelections2014.info/

  20. Rajmohan says:

    Looks like Kerala is not going to have a minister in new central ministry .

  21. A.K.SHARMA says:

    Blame it on Petro-dollars. and dollars.


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